In February 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. However, due to the strong resistance of the Ukrainian military, the attempt to resolve the conflict quickly ended in failure. After failing to capture the capital, Kyiv, and Ukraine's second-largest city, Kharkiv, Russia shifted its focus to the eastern and southern parts of Ukraine.
Southern Ukraine has long been a region of conflict between the two countries. In 2014, Russia stationed troops in Crimea and annexed the peninsula. Following the annexation of Crimea, fighting broke out in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. Although ceasefire agreements and international mediation efforts were attempted, the fighting continued, and in 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
The southern region is home to Ukraine's third-largest city, Odesa. The southern coastline, which borders the sea, is a crucial hub for Ukraine's trade with the outside world. Meanwhile, the Crimean Peninsula houses the headquarters of Russia's Black Sea Fleet, making it a strategically important area for Russia as well.

After the invasion, Russia launched an attack on eastern Ukraine in March, and by May, it had captured the Azovstal steel plant in Donetsk Oblast in the south, securing a land route to Crimea. Russia also took control of the entire coastline along the Sea of Azov. In response, Ukraine increased its military activity. In May, Ukrainian forces sank the flagship of Russia's Black Sea Fleet, the "Moskva," using drones, and forced Russian troops to withdraw from Snake Island in the Black Sea. From July onward, Ukraine targeted scattered Russian military bases in the south and launched a counteroffensive in September. In 2023, Ukraine recaptured the strategically important Zaporizhzhia region, which is crucial for access to Crimea. However, in 2024, Russia reclaimed control of the area, and the conflict remains at a stalemate.

Since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine, Russia has lost nearly 30,000 vehicles and over 700,000 soldiers. To compensate for the decline in military strength, Russia has taken various measures. In November 2024, Russia ratified a treaty expanding security cooperation with North Korea, which includes the provision of weapons such as rocket launchers and the deployment of 12,000 regular troops. On November 20th, over 10,000 North Korean soldiers, after undergoing training in Russia, were deployed to fight in Ukraine. This treaty has raised concerns globally, with President Zelenskyy stating that "this is a step toward world war" in response to North Korea's involvement.
However, the replenished forces have not yet been deployed to the south. In mid-November, President Zelenskyy announced that during an offensive operation in Russia's western Kursk Oblast, a 50,000-strong force of Russian and North Korean troops had been contained. "The Russian military on our territory is unable to shift to other offensives," he stated.

In October 2024, President Zelenskyy announced a "Victory Plan" aimed at ending Russia's military invasion. The plan includes attacks on Russian territory using long-range missiles, the continuation of cross-border strikes, and the consideration of NATO membership. In November, Ukraine launched its first long-range missile attack, taking a significant step toward ending the war.
On November 27, Ukraine carried out a large-scale attack on Russian military positions in the occupied Crimean Peninsula and southern Russia using missiles and drones. This attack was reportedly aimed at disrupting Russia's air defense systems. Since the beginning of 2024, fighting has centered on Russia's western Kursk Oblast, but missile and drone attacks have been observed in southern Kherson Oblast as well. A Russian counteroffensive in the south remains a possibility. As the winter season comes to an end, it will be important to watch for any developments.