Trump vs. Harris Predicting the outcome of the presidential election.

Sep,20

news USA

TEXT : Sam Field

The U.S. presidential election, held every four years, is approaching. It was thought that President Trump of the Republican Party would face Mr. Biden of the Democratic Party, but with Biden's withdrawal, there is now talk of Trump's re-election. Initially seen as being at a disadvantage, the new candidate, Ms. Harris, has seen her approval ratings become neck and neck, and she even gave the impression of being in a stronger position during the televised debate. While reflecting on the previous two elections, I would like to explore the key to winning this electoral battle.

Their first face-to-face television debate.

On September 10, 2024, Democratic Vice President Harris, who is running in the U.S. presidential election, faced off against former Republican President Trump in a televised debate held in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Harris served as a U.S. Senator in Washington during Trump's presidency from 2017 to 2021. However, Trump had no direct interactions with Harris, even skipping President Biden's inauguration, making the September debate their first face-to-face meeting.
The debate kicked off with discussions on economic policy. Harris claimed, 'I have the policies to support the middle class and workers,' while Trump countered, saying, 'I built the greatest economy in American history.'
The 90-minute debate covered a wide range of topics, including inflation, the current administration’s immigration policies, and Trump’s legal issues. Harris, using gestures and speaking with expressive facial expressions, stood in contrast to Trump, who did not make eye contact with his opponent. Although there was no bias in the speaking time, several news outlets reported that Trump appeared to be at a disadvantage in the debate.

Candidates representing each party.

The Democratic Party, which emphasizes liberal values, and the Republican Party, which emphasizes conservative values, have two contrasting candidates. Harris, the Democratic candidate, was born as a second-generation immigrant and has built a career as a prosecutor, attorney general, and senator. Despite being in her first term as a senator in 2020, she entered the race for the Democratic nomination. Though she withdrew from the race, she was chosen as the first female vice president. In July 2024, with President Biden’s withdrawal from the election, Harris was selected as the presidential candidate. If elected, she would become the first female president of the United States.
On the other hand, the Republican candidate Trump, while lacking political experience, is widely known as a businessman and television host. The slogan he used during his previous presidential campaign, 'Make America Great Again,' has become an iconic Republican slogan in the American political landscape. When comparing policies, both parties share common ground on issues like policies toward China and strengthening export controls. However, they are at odds on many other issues such as trade agreements, energy policies, abortion, and relations with allies.

Neck-and-neck approval ratings.

Initially, it was expected that the U.S. presidential election would be a showdown between Trump and Biden, but when the Democratic candidate baton was passed to Harris, opinions initially suggested that Trump had the advantage. However, in multiple polls conducted by CNN, the approval ratings for both candidates were almost tied. A poll conducted by The New York Times and Siena College from September 3 to 6 showed similar results, with 48% support for Trump and 47% for Harris.
In the televised debate on September 11, Harris was seen as the winner, making the outcome of the presidential election unpredictable. Harris's supporters mainly consist of women, younger voters in their 30s and below, and Black and Latino voters. In these demographics, Harris is surpassing Trump in support.

Key battleground states.

In the past two presidential elections, a major factor that determined the outcome was the presence of key battleground states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Georgia. In the 2016 election, for example, although Trump’s opponent, Hillary Clinton, won in New York, which holds 29 electoral votes, and California, which holds 55 electoral votes, she was defeated in the battleground states. Trump himself lost in these states in the 2020 election.
These battleground states tend to swing between parties in each election and serve as a key indicator of electoral momentum. In this election as well, the activities in these battleground states will likely determine the outcome. On November 5, the day of fate, which candidate will Lady Luck smile upon? Regardless of who wins, we hope to witness the gracious sight of the losing candidate honoring the incoming president at the inauguration ceremony in January 2025.